Let’s play pretend
❦ “Let’s play pretend.
Pretend we have unlimited resources to staff the hospitals. Unlimited ICU beds.
We let COVID-19 take its natural course.
COVID-19 would average, what? Two or three infections per person, per year?
Let’s be conservative. Let’s say you get COVID-19 once a year.
So once a year, a certain proportion of all human beings, except those in countries with good COVID control will:
- die;
- have reproductive difficulties like erectile dysfunction;
- get heart failure;
- lose the pleasure of the smell and taste of food;
- have new autoimmune issues;
- develop new cognitive issues;
- have vascular problems like strokes;
- suffer other organ damage, like kidney failure;
- receive a new diagnosis of diabetes.
Etc.
Each of these has a percentage prevalence in cases. Some of those numbers are not small.
Each time, there will be people that get one or more of these issues.
Each of those conditions has their own associated increase in mortality.
Then there is the drop in productivity and quality of life.
How long do you think it would be before the majority of the population has something not quite right with them due to COVID-19?
I don’t think it would take all that long. Ten years maybe?
Twenty?
How can it possibly be a sane public health strategy to have hospitalisation and ICU capacity preservation as the goal of a nation, when the obvious and massive loss of health (and life) due to circulating COVID can be predicted already?
Some years, we will not have a great match between vaccines and circulating strains (such as Omicron); other years we will get it right (maybe if we are fast enough, and we aren’t yet).
What does that mean? There will be multiple episodes in the future where vaccine-mediated cover and infection-mediated immunity will not be great.
That means the organ damage will be somewhat more severe.
Why are public health officials OK with this? Even if we can never get back to zero COVID, why are they OK with having a high frequency of infections per lifetime?
Am I in an alternate universe where I can see these studies and they can’t?
We have therapeutics coming in, so that will help, but they aren’t 100% magic bullets either.
People need a combination of factors to bounce through a COVID infection without noticeable effects (although kidney damage can present late).
That combination, to be maintained at all times for an individual is difficult, let alone a population.
The strategy of “Living with COVID-19” is fatally flawed. That flaw is the fact that COVID-19 is a rapidly mutating virus that causes irreversible, or slowly reversible damage to the human body.
We can’t actually withstand it for our usual natural lifetimes.
The government must show the modelling for long-term health outcomes for their “living with the virus” plans. The economic impact of the same. All the colleges of medicine should submit their modelling on how COVID-19 is affecting human health.
This is critically important work.
How a biohazard was allowed into Australia and allowed to circulate – without modelling its overall impact on human health – is a matter that should be investigated thoroughly.
It was a huge decision. There should have been expert discussion and documentation.
No… Saying “We didn’t know” is not good enough.
If you don’t know… Don’t play with SARS.”
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More by... Dr. Noor Bari

















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